We need to figure out Custom Crate and see whether it is a decent deal to spend 5 bucks a week on it, as compared with the other choices we have.
As far as I can tell this is how it works:
(1) The player chooses certain rewards in 4 tiers
- Grand prize tier 1 - 1 item
- Tier 2 - 3 items
- Tier 3 - 6 items
- Tier 4 - 10 items.
- Total 20 items
(2) In the first crate, each tier is assigned a certain drop chance, which is divided equally between each item in that tier. So, every item in the same tier has the same drop chance. This only applies to the first crate.
(3) When the first crate opens, the item that drops is removed from the item pool. The player is asked to choose another reward from that tier. So if a Tier 4 item dropped, you get to select another Tier 4 item to replace it (let’s call it “New Reward”). If a Tier 3 item dropped, you replace it with another Tier 3 item. And so on and so forth.
(4) However, the New Reward does NOT have the same drop chance as the others in that tier which you had previously selected - it has a lower drop chance. For example, if the drop chance of Tier 4 items in the original unopened first crate is 7%, the drop chance of the New Reward is 2%. We shall call the difference “Drop Chance Delta”.
(5) The Drop Chance Delta is then spread between all tiers the 19 rewards that you didn’t get. That is how HHG sells the Custom Crate as increasing your chances to get the rewards that you didn’t get.
However, we do not know - and I intend to find out:
(1) What the Drop Chance Delta is or how the Drop Chance Delta is calculated
(2) How the Drop Chance Delta is assigned to other tiers for the purposes of opening the next crate
(2) What it practically means in real life, as to how many crates you have to open to get a decent chance to land your Tier 1 or Tier 2 reward.
The only data points I have so far is as follows:
(1) I opened the first Free Crate
(2) My reward was 60 Hardscope Frags - a Tier 4 reward.
(3) I selected Cinder to replace Hardscope in Tier 4.
(4) Now the drop chances of Tier 1 to Tier 4 are as follows:
Tier 1: 0.26%
Tier 2: 1.32% each (x3)
Tier 3: 4.73% each (x6)
Tier 4: 7.23% for 9 items and 2.33% for Cinder <------ this is where the delta occurred and we need to know how it was distributed between Tier 4 and other Tiers.
CALL FOR INFORMATION
If someone can share the Baseline Drop Chance for the Free Crate that would be super… then we can calculate how much the Drop Chance Delta is and from there work out the normalised distribution and drop rates for Crate 10, Crate 20, and so on.
Also if people got a Tier 1, 2, or Tier 3 drop from the Free Crate, what are your new drop chances?
Let’s figure this out cos the money for the Custom Crates can be used for other things if it’s a better economic proposition.